Bitcoin’s price is down nearly 60% YTD in 2022 and many crypto investors are wondering if Bitcoin will rise again in 2023.
When Will Bitcoin Rise Again?
Yes. Bitcoin is likely to rise again in 2023 based on historical data. Crypto bear markets happen every 4 years and this is nothing new for Bitcoin. The good news is that the bear market only last 1 year or so because Bitcoin’s price usually goes up after an 80% drop in price.
If Bitcoin drops 80% from its November 2021 high of $69,000 then Bitcoin could fall to $14,000 by January 2023. However, I expect Bitcoin to recover quickly from its lows and soar much higher next year after the smart money buys the dip.
How the Bitcoin Halving Effects Bitcoin’s Price
The Bitcoin halving event cuts the mineable supply of BTC in half every 4 years.
Based on Bitcoin’s halving history, I believe Bitcoin will rise again in 2023 and go up as we approach the 4th Bitcoin halving in 2024.
That’s because Bitcoin’s price is dependent on bullish and bearish movements. Each halving cycle takes 210,000 blocks in total but you can break this down into 3 important periods:
- Bullish runup after each halving during the 1st 70,000 block period
- 70 to 80% crash during the 2nd 70,000 block period
- Recovery back to all-time highs during the 3rd 70,000 block period leading up to the next halving
Let’s take a look at the Bitcoin halving chart to illustrate what I’m talking about.
The chart above shows how Bitcoin bounces off of every low during the crypto bear market to new highs as it approaches the next halving cycle. Every halving cycle started with a massive bull run before Bitcoin crashed in price.
This is not a bug in the Bitcoin code. Bitcoin was designed to cut the minable supply in half every 4 years, which causes a supply shock after the halving. However, nothing lasts forever and extreme optimism turns into fear once Bitcoin bulls take their profits at the top of the bull market and sell to Bitcoin newbies.
The past isn’t guaranteed to predict the future but Bitcoin will bottom in January 2023 and start going back up if Bitcoin follows its historical trends.
Monitor the Crypto Greed and Fear Index
The Crypto Greed and Fear Index is a good measure of how the overall cryptocurrency market is performing. You will make the money as a crypto investor if you buy Bitcoin during periods of extreme fear and sell Bitcoin during periods of extreme greed.
Of course, you could become a Bitcoin HODLer and never sell Bitcoin no matter what. That would guarantee that you don’t become obsessed over fiat prices and could maximize your long-term gains.
A Fed U-Turn is a Good Sign for Bitcoin’s Price
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in 2022, which assets such as stocks, REITs, and Bitcoin to fall in price. Bitcoin is beginning to become positively correlated with the U.S. stock market more so every year.
Once the Fed stops raising interest rates, I believe Bitcoin will start going up in price and signal the bottom of the crypto bear market. Economists believe the Fed will hike rates in November and December 2022 so don’t expect Bitcoin to rise in price for a few months.
I’m marking January 2023 as the bottom of the crypto market and it could be the best time to buy Bitcoin at a cheap price before it pumps higher.
Bitcoin will rise again and march toward $69,000 next year if history repeats itself. Right now, I’m stacking sats while Bitcoin prices are low. I use a Bitcoin DCA strategy to add to my BTC holdings without trying to guess what will happen next.