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Lucid (LCID) Stock Prediction in 2025: $150 per Share

InvestorTrip’s 2025 price target for Lucid Motors stock is $150 per share. The bull and bear case for Lucid is huge but so is the opportunity to disrupt the electric vehicle industry and become the 2nd most valuable EV stock behind Tesla.

Lucid Group Price Targets for 2025

2025 Price Target (Per Share)Details
Fair Value: $150Scaled production plus a strong EV demand should push Lucid Motors moving forward.
Bull Case: $200Luxury EV consumption soars and Lucid becomes #1 most sought after electric car (similar to Apple iPhone)
Bear Case: $100Supply chain issues and inflation could hurt margins and consumer demand

This research report is based on our CAGR model that predicts how Lucid Motors stock will perform over the next few years. We’ve determined that a reasonable range over the next 3 years is $100 to $200 per share.

Overview

Lucid Group is an EV company that obsesses over producing the highest quality electric vehicles on the planet. The company launched its first models of the Lucid Air Dream Edition in late 2021 and began delivering vehicles to customers in Q4 2021.

Lucid Air

With 6,000 to 7,000 expected deliveries in 2022, Lucid Motors is well on its way to scaling revenue and making a serious statement in the electric car market.

Revenue & Delivery Projections

YearDeliveriesRevenue
20227,000$700 million
202314,000$2.4 billion
202448,000$4.8 billion
202596,000$9.6 billion

Lucid plans to produce 500,000 EVs annually by 2030 and CEO Peter Rawlinson confirmed 37,000 current reservations along with an 100,000 order from the Saudi Arabian government.

37,000 reservations represents $3.7 billion in potential revenue for the company but production has been stalled due the company taking its time to prioritize quality over volume.

The Casas Grande Arizona factory will be able to produce 90k vehicles in early 2023 plus the Saudi Arabia factory is currently under construction. Once both are completed, Lucid will have a max production capacity of 500k vehicles by mid-decade.

We can estimate that annual production will at least double every year as a conservative measure. Things happen and Lucid may have to reduce production due to supply chain issues, rising lithium prices, geopolitical conflicts, etc.

The recent Lucid Air price increase however is a good sign as the company attempts to keep up with soaring demand and inflation. Here is the updated pricing for the 3 available Lucid Air Models:

  • Lucid Air Pure: $87,400
  • Lucid Air Touring: $107,400
  • Lucid Air Grand Touring: $154,000

Assuming most of the orders will be the base Pure model, we estimate an average selling price of $100,000 to keep the data simple and easy to process.

Valuation

Using Tesla’s industry leading Price to Sales ratio of 15, we can conclude that LCID stock will trade at a premium in 2025 assuming production goes as planned.

Projected $9.5 billion in 2025 revenue X P/S ratio of 15 = a potential $144 billion market capitalization for LCID shares.

That’s nearly 5x the current market cap value, which would put Lucid shares at around $90 per share from a Price to Sales prediction model.

I bumped up the LCID price target due to the fact that supply chain issues, battery shortages, and inflation will improve over the next few years.

The United States has officially entered a recession and growth stocks are trading much lower at the moment. We must account for a realistic stock market rebound and renewed consumer spending once things improve.

Lucid hold $4.6 billion in cash on its balance sheet with a $2 billion annual capital expenditure cost. That means the company will be fully funded well into 2024. It’s not exactly clear if Lucid Motors will run out of cash but management didn’t seem worried about it.

Summary

Our LCID stock price prediction is $150 per share by 2025. We decided to hold off on making 2030 price prediction due to the uncertainty of predicting Lucid’s production & revenue over the next 8 years.

What do you think? Let me know in the comments.

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David J Galuhn

Thursday 4th of August 2022

In perspective, if $14K was invested in Tesla 5 years ago, it would be worth approximately $186k today. However, this was a different time and economic conditions were vastly different. Tesla then was a pioneer in the industry, today with significant competition, market volatility has softened. The least expensive EV currently is about $25K. It's fine for production to increase but, if unit price does not significantly come down, Lucid's will only be afforded by the very wealthy. With growing competition, entering the market, this could be a problem.